Distinguish correlation from causation
Examine what an association measures, consider alternative explanations and match your conclusion to the study’s method.
Follow the method ↓
The answer in 30 seconds
A persuasive chart can encourage an explanation that goes beyond the evidence. The aim is to distinguish an observation from a hypothesis and from a demonstrated effect.
Two variables moving together do not prove that one causes the other. Examine timing, shared influences, data collection and study design before using causal language.
Examples to adapt
Warm weather may increase both; their association does not show that buying ice cream makes people swim.
A relationship between city averages may not describe individual residents.
Follow the method
- 1Define the variables
Record units, population and period. Check whether the values describe individuals, places or averages.
- 2Describe the observation
State what the data shows before explaining why. Look for outliers and missing periods.
- 3Consider alternatives
A third factor may influence both variables. The direction of an effect may also be the reverse of your initial idea.
- 4Match the conclusion to the method
Read the study design and limitations. If the result is an association, use that term rather than causes or prevents.
A checklist to keep
Use these checks to record your observations. They are a reading aid, not an automatic assessment.
| Check | What to examine | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Observation | What changes together? | Describe |
| Scope | Who, where and when? | Define |
| Explanation | Other possible factors? | Examine |
| Conclusion | What does the method support? | Qualify |
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What to check
Statistical relationships depend on scope.
Compatible timing alone does not demonstrate an effect.
No linear correlation does not rule out every relationship.
Common questions
Does a strong correlation prove a cause?
No. Study design and competing explanations still matter.
Can I keep the hypothesis?
Yes, if you clearly describe it as something to test.
Sources and documentation
Documentation consulted on . Examples are illustrative; interfaces and results may change.