Practical digital skills

Distinguish correlation from causation

Examine what an association measures, consider alternative explanations and match your conclusion to the study’s method.

Step-by-step guideUpdated
Follow the method ↓
Charts and a laptop are used to compare several numerical indicators

The answer in 30 seconds

A persuasive chart can encourage an explanation that goes beyond the evidence. The aim is to distinguish an observation from a hypothesis and from a demonstrated effect.

Two variables moving together do not prove that one causes the other. Examine timing, shared influences, data collection and study design before using causal language.

Examples to adapt

Ice cream and swimming

Warm weather may increase both; their association does not show that buying ice cream makes people swim.

City averages

A relationship between city averages may not describe individual residents.

Follow the method

  1. 1
    Define the variables

    Record units, population and period. Check whether the values describe individuals, places or averages.

  2. 2
    Describe the observation

    State what the data shows before explaining why. Look for outliers and missing periods.

  3. 3
    Consider alternatives

    A third factor may influence both variables. The direction of an effect may also be the reverse of your initial idea.

  4. 4
    Match the conclusion to the method

    Read the study design and limitations. If the result is an association, use that term rather than causes or prevents.

A checklist to keep

Use these checks to record your observations. They are a reading aid, not an automatic assessment.

Distinguish correlation from causation: checklist
CheckWhat to examineAction
ObservationWhat changes together?Describe
ScopeWho, where and when?Define
ExplanationOther possible factors?Examine
ConclusionWhat does the method support?Qualify

Download the CSV checklist

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What to check

Statistical relationships depend on scope.

Compatible timing alone does not demonstrate an effect.

No linear correlation does not rule out every relationship.

Common questions

Does a strong correlation prove a cause?

No. Study design and competing explanations still matter.

Can I keep the hypothesis?

Yes, if you clearly describe it as something to test.

Sources and documentation

Documentation consulted on . Examples are illustrative; interfaces and results may change.

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